Bernstein Expects the Crypto Sector’s Market Cap To Rise to $7.5 Trillion by 2025, Which Equates to a Price of Around $210,000 for One Bitcoin

This is not investment advice. The author has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. has a disclosure and ethics policy.

When Wall Street starts using words like a “monster crypto rally,” one has clearly missed the boat on securing a sweet spot entry point. Nonetheless, if Bernstein’s latest projections pan out, the ongoing bullish cycle still has quite a bit of legroom to run, which bodes well for not only crypto sector heavyweights like Bitcoin but also the sector-exposed stocks such as Robinhood.

Bernstein declared in a new investment note today:

“The buy-side and sell-side alike, refuse to see what we see — a monster of a crypto cycle over 2024-25.”

Accordingly, the investment bank sees the crypto sector’s market cap rising to $7.5 trillion by the end of 2025 from a market-based capitalization of around $2.6 trillion today. Assuming that Bitcoin is able to maintain its current sector weight of 55 percent, this projection would see the price of the world’s pre-eminent cryptocurrency rise to around $210,000.

Of course, in the ongoing pre-halving phase, the spot Bitcoin ETFs are playing a critical role in boosting the bullish momentum in Bitcoin and, as a second-order derivative, the broader crypto sphere. These ETFs have now collectively attracted $11.82 billion in net inflows, which have swelled their total net assets to $60.96 billion as of the 13th of March.

Consider the fact that Bitcoin’s mining activity is currently producing around 6,300 tokens every week. In contrast, these spot Bitcoin ETFs are gobbling up roughly 40,000 tokens weekly, which equates to an imbalance of 6.35x.

We noted in a post earlier this week that, based on the assumptions embedded in the 2025 US budget document, the US administration expects Bitcoin to hit a price of between $250,000 and $6 million in around a decade. However, if Bernstein’s projections for 2025 pan out, the upper bound in the budget document’s assumptions would appear much more likely.

Meanwhile, Bernstein has also raised its target on Robinhood shares to $30, equating to an upside potential of around 83 percent. As of February 2024, the brokerage firm boasted 23.6 million funded customers, with the volume of crypto notional transactions reaching $6.5 billion over the month. Bernstein analysts believe that Robinhood can grow its crypto revenues by 9.0x through 2025 vs. the 5.0x consensus.

Share this story