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It was not that long ago that China helped save Tesla from near-certain ruination by enabling a rapid scaling up of the Model 3 and Model Y production lines at Giga Shanghai. Now, however, China is utilizing the technology transferred from Tesla and other Western companies to turn the proverbial tables, prompting the US Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, to issue a clarion call of sorts on the Asian giant’s excess manufacturing capacity vis-a-vis “electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and solar.”
Janet Yellen on China’s Excess Manufacturing Capacity
The US Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, was in China for the past few days to discuss key economic matters and to “put a floor under the relationship.” As part of her prepared remarks, the Treasury Secretary noted:
“China has long had excess savings, but investment in the real estate sector and government-funded infrastructure had absorbed much of it. Now, we are seeing an increase in business investment in a number of “new” industries targeted by the PRC’s industrial policy. That includes electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and solar.”
These comments underscore the unease with which the Biden administration is currently viewing China’s rapid deployment of resources to capture a global foothold in key industries.
China’s Deputy Finance Minister Liao Min says global new-energy vehicle production capacity is “far from meeting market demand,” especially from developing nations.
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 8, 2024
For its part, though, China maintains that its “new-energy vehicle” production capacity is merely a fraction of the oncoming market demand, particularly from developing countries.
China’s Deployment of Tesla’s Giga Presses
Of course, China’s EV excess production capacity did not develop overnight. Instead, it is the result of a years-long technology transfer regime.
Remember the “Giga Press” that Tesla developed with a Chinese-owned company?
Xiaomi is using similar “gigacasting” machines to make its new SU7 EVs. These machines are rumored to be made by Haitian Die Casting in Ningbo https://t.co/Y21MnIvChh pic.twitter.com/k5hAYQqH5y
— Kyle Chan (@kyleichan) April 7, 2024
For instance, as part of its efforts to quickly ramp up the production of its Model 3 and Model Y at Giga Shanghai, Tesla helped China’s LK Group to manufacture the world’s largest casting machines, which are now being used by at least six Chinese EV manufacturers.
The Xiaomi eco-system #Xiaomi pic.twitter.com/dUycGNotWC
— Jason (@Jas0nYu) April 8, 2024
What’s more, Xiaomi’s just-revealed Porsche-look-alike, the $25,000 SU7 EV is also expected to utilize these casting machines to achieve phenomenal economies of scale. Xiaomi already has an established ecosystem of appliances and mobile devices, and the company is now pitching its SU7 electric vehicle as a harmonious bridge, replete with videos of its automated vacuum cleaners working inside the EV.
Our readers would remember that Reuters published a highly contentious report last week, disclosing Tesla’s apparent willingness to abandon its upcoming cheaper Model 2 in the face of serious competition from China. The report came just days after Xiaomi’s SU7 managed to record 90,000 orders within a mere 24 hours, leading to the highly enviable situation where Xiaomi has already sold the entirety of its 2024 planned production.
Of course, Elon Musk quickly clamped down on the veracity of Reuters’ reporting. However, this has not stopped continuing speculation as to the fate of the $30,000 Model 2.
Tesla, $TSLA, has a plan to fend off cheaper competition from China with a $25,000 electric car, per Bloomberg.
But it has to overhaul the production line pioneered by Henry Ford.
The company is moving to what it calls an “unboxed” approach, which is more like building Legos.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) April 8, 2024
For the Model 2, Tesla is relying on its so-called “unboxed” approach to manufacturing, which borrows heavily from how structures are built with Legos. Yet, the question remains: how long before China takes away this advantage as well?
China Enters the Robotaxi Sphere to Give Tesla a Fierce Bout of Competition
$TSLA | Bernstein REITERATES ‘Underperform’ rating with a $120 PT for Tesla stock.
Bernstein: “We see the ROBOTAXI unveiling on Aug. 8 as more aspirational, akin to Tesla Semi and Roadster announcements – and not likely to be Tesla’s next model … And We only expect…
— Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) April 8, 2024
Elon Musk announced on Friday that Tesla’s robotaxi will be unveiled on the 08th of August, 2024. The vehicle is expected to leverage the same platform as that of the Model 2. This disclosure has been met with a fair amount of skepticism, with Bernstein analysts terming it more of an “aspirational” move.
When Elon Musk announced he’ll unveil a Tesla robotaxi in August, it was a clear attempt to arrest a spiral for the once high-flying carmaker https://t.co/NCuCvVsTxC
— Bloomberg (@business) April 8, 2024
Bloomberg has been even more straightforward, interpreting the robotaxi announcement as merely a hype effort to halt Tesla’s declining share price.
I did lots of weekend Tweeting showing how absurdly bad $TSLA FSD is. Here’s the TL;DR version:
If FSD needs “only” 1 intervention per 100 miles & only HALF of those avoid a crash, as a robotaxi it would crash every 200 miles! That’s 1.5 crashes EVERY charge!
Get the fraud now?
— Stanphyl Capital (@StanphylCap) April 8, 2024
This skepticism also stems from the fact that Tesla’s FSD is currently far from perfect and still requires an average of 1 intervention per 100 miles.
MS on $TSLA: robotaxi dominance will take decades to play out due to legal / regulatory issues pic.twitter.com/pMZBJA2NQ6
— grant (@grantbelden) April 8, 2024
Meanwhile, even Morgan Stanley’s insanely bullish analysts concede that the robotaxi phenomenon is a story that will likely evolve over decades rather than months or years, given the plethora of legal and regulatory issues.
Against this backdrop, China’s Uber of sorts, Didi, just announced that a joint venture between its self-driving unit and the EV manufacturer GAC Aion has received the requisite license to mass-produce robotaxis in China, with inaugural sales expected to materialize in 2025.