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If you want to see Wall Street in dysfunction, look no further than Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, who maintains a Tesla stock price target of $320 but now sees the EV giant’s shares potentially tagging the $100 price level.
Adam Jonas on MS call this morning said $TSLA $100 bear case may be in play over the next few months
— Thomas Thornton (@TommyThornton) March 13, 2024
To wit, Jonas said in today’s morning call that Tesla’s “$100 bear case” is now in play over the next few months. This would imply a downside potential of around 40 percent relative to the current price of around $171 per share.
First analyst to downgrade $TSLA to a SELL rating this year. đź‘Ť
Price target of $125 is way lower than most of his moron rivals. $TSLA could rip higher on this news, but my price target is below Colin’s. pic.twitter.com/51iMlYMDGt
— Motorhead (@BradMunchen) March 13, 2024
This aligns with Wells Fargo issuing Tesla’s first “sell” rating of the year today, with the bank slashing its target on Tesla shares from $200 to $125.
“We see downside risk to volume as price cuts are having a diminishing impact,” said Wells Fargo. “We see headwinds from disappointing $TSLA deliveries & more price cuts, which likely drive negative EPS revisions.”
— notreload (@thudderwicks) March 13, 2024
Wells Fargo has noted that Tesla’s repetitive price cuts are now having a “diminishing impact” on demand, which only adds to the EV giant’s mounting pile of challenges.
WEDBUSH: “The Board of Tesla needs to do the following 3 things in our view to stop this Category 5 hurricane over Tesla’s stock.
1. Create a new comp package that supersedes this 2018 one along with a new package post proxy that will be voted at the next shareholder meeting in… https://t.co/fGEkA9mVIs
— Nicholas Brown (@NicholasABrown_) March 13, 2024
On the flip side, Wedbush and Deutsche Bank do still retain lofty price targets on Tesla shares, with the former maintaining a $315 target along with an outperform rating while the latter lowering its target to a still-respectable $218 price level. Even so, Wedbush’s Dan Ives wants Tesla to rapidly agree to a new compensation package for Elon Musk that would give him a path toward a 25 percent stake in the company. Bear in mind that Musk’s 2018 package was recently voided by the Delaware Court of Chancery, prompting the mega-billionaire to move Tesla’s legal jurisdiction to Texas.
Tesla’s Troubles
Let’s be real. $TSLA now trading at 44x forward eps – it’s lowest P/E since the 2023 1H lows (median 58x). We (and others) have been talking about 1Q WS deliv ests being too high for two weeks now so buy side consensus could already be discounting a 425-440K 1Q result. The San… https://t.co/xCmKUw3X5V pic.twitter.com/teki2BbuK5
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) March 12, 2024
As we noted recently, Tesla has been throwing everything, including the proverbial kitchen sink, at its persistent anemic demand problem. Future Fund’s Gary Black recently noted that Wall Street might already be discounting a significantly reduced Q1 delivery tally of between 425,000 and 440,000 units. What’s more, it appears increasingly likely that Tesla would struggle to deliver even 2 million vehicles for the entire 2024.
Hey @elonmusk?… how can your self-named “Full Self Driving” software, which is still level 2 ADAS, thus not full-self-driving, be 10x safer than a human if IIHS ranks it as poor, vs. GM Super Cruise’s marginal ranking, & Lexus’ Advanced Drive acceptable rank? Is IIHS wrong? pic.twitter.com/7mFIWcikKW
— Gordon Johnson (@GordonJohnson19) March 12, 2024
Meanwhile, the much-hyped tailwinds from the Autopilot ADAS and its FSD capabilities still remain absent from the proverbial horizon. Recently, the IIHS ranked Tesla’s FSD as “poor” along with the vast majority of such systems currently online. This comes as the third court case vis-a-vis the Autopilot is set to commence next week.
Moreover, as per a recent site visit by Evercore, Tesla is likely “years away” from ramping up the production of its new sub-$30,000 model. Finally, the Cybertruck is expected to enter volume production only in 2025.
Since Sep. 2023, the CORELATION between Tesla and Bitcoin has broken down. – Morgan Stanley
Since 2000, Bitcoin $BTC and Tesla $TSLA exhibited a correlation typically under 0.5, but since September, the correlation has been -0.59.
Analyst Comment: “We believe the correlation… pic.twitter.com/PJuLMGWgaz
— Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) March 12, 2024
It is hardly a surprise, therefore, that Tesla’s correlation with Bitcoin has flipped into negative territory.
$TSLA Is there ever a cleaner looking chart than Tesla’s?
We got the obvious MOAT.
We got the obvious BOAT.
Looks like the BOAT is about to give way.
Because if that bear flag’s measured moved comes to fruition (downside should generally = length of the flag pole), then… pic.twitter.com/tygCdZvIB8
— Heisenberg (@Mr_Derivatives) March 12, 2024
And, the sub-$140 stock price territory appears increasingly likely.